…it's the unemployment statistics that count (and, most importantly, the potential fallout in terms of social unrest). As the FT reports here, there are twenty million rural migrants who are now unemployed after their export-oriented manufacturing jobs vanished in the global crisis.
When he wasn't dodging shoes, Wen Jiabao visiting London echoed Gordon Brown and others in blaming the international crisis on untramelled greed in the boardrooms of banks in the West. They're both right, of course. But just as we all know Gordon Brown is also trying to deflect whatever blame he may bear, so Wen Jiabao also has a domestic agenda. There is a small but significant danger that those who are unemployed, or whose businesses go bust, may turn against the Communist leadership. It would make sense for Wen Jiabao to turn that anger outwards towards the western world. And – given the situation – it would be easy and logical. He must, however, be aware that dangers lie in that direction too.
Meanwhile, the government has launched a new scheme to sell electrical goods to the vast, but poor, rural population. It's a policy that raises questions about joined-up thinking. How will a newly unemployed rural labourer afford the flat-screen tv? Until you realise that this is just another variation of the policy of governments worldwide. Never mind that you no longer have any savings, just spend!